The recent surge in Pakistan's satellite launches has sparked concerns about the potential implications for regional security. With six earth observation (EO) satellites launched in just over a year, the country's space surveillance capabilities have significantly expanded, according to defense analyst Group Captain Ajay Ahlawat (retd).
What makes this particularly intriguing is the timing and the nature of these launches. Pakistan's Space and Upper Atmosphere Research Commission (SUPARCO) has a history of limited satellite activity, with only a handful of launches in recent decades. However, the rapid increase in satellite launches, particularly with Chinese assistance, suggests a strategic shift in Pakistan's space program.
Ahlawat highlights the potential impact on India, noting that these EO satellites can enhance Pakistan's ability to monitor Indian borders, troop movements, and military assets. This raises a critical question: How will India respond to this evolving threat?
India's own space program faces challenges. The Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) has struggled with recent launch failures, which have impacted its ability to launch surveillance satellites. This vulnerability is further exacerbated by the limited number of navigation satellites in India's NavIC system, forcing strategic forces to rely on foreign navigation systems like GPS and Glonass.
Rear Admiral Sudhir Pillai (Retd) offers a nuanced perspective, emphasizing the complementary nature of Pakistan's and India's satellite systems. He explains that the combination of optical and synthetic aperture radar (SAR) satellites can provide a more comprehensive view of the South Asian theater, even during daylight and nighttime hours.
However, Pillai also points out the timing of India's satellite plans. The SBS-3 program, approved in October 2024, aims to deploy a constellation of 52 surveillance satellites by the second half of the decade. Yet, the operational threat from China's dense military satellite network and Pakistan's new constellation is already a reality, creating a significant sequencing challenge for India's space-based surveillance efforts.
In my opinion, this situation underscores the importance of strategic planning and technological innovation in the space domain. As Pakistan's satellite capabilities continue to evolve, India must address its own vulnerabilities and accelerate its space program to maintain a balanced and secure regional environment.
